Ikke akkurat det du etterlyser, men dog artig artikkel med statistikk analyser fra CL matcher (i fra gruppespill og utover) i perioden 2001-2007: http://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/3605/1/MPRA_paper_3605.pdf
Noen utdrag:
"The teams who... win more corners (!), have higher ball possession share (!), ... are expected to be
defeated." Ikke akkurat slik man forventer at kamper skal gå...
"...it seems that teams will win two out of their three home matches, if the home players are shooting on goal approximately two more shots than the away teams’ players. The home defeat probability in that case is around 30.4%."
...men så skal det også påpekes at forfatteren trekker fram Olympiakos - RBK i 05/06 turneringen som kampen med det mest overraskende utfallet, der Olympiakos i følge hans metodiske beregninger hadde 99,95% sannsynlighet for hjemmeseier... kampen endte 1-3. "....to prove once more that perfect predictions do not exist in football games."
God lesning! :-)